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Krasnodar vs Dinamo Moscow — Premier League 2018

Krasnodar
Krasnodar
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Dinamo Moscow
Dinamo Moscow
7/19/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Stadion FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Krasnodar48%
×Draw24%
Dinamo Moscow27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar
1.65
Dinamo Moscow
1.17

Krasnodar creates 41% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Krasnodar
1.92
Dinamo Moscow
1.41

allows per match

Krasnodar
0.93
Dinamo Moscow
1.37

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par
Dinamo Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

Dinamo Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw
73%
Krasnodar or Dinamo Moscow
76%
Draw or Dinamo Moscow
52%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+
26%
Dinamo Moscow wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals
81%
Krasnodar 2+ goals
49%
Krasnodar 3+ goals
23%
Dinamo Moscow 1+ goals
69%
Dinamo Moscow 2+ goals
33%
Dinamo Moscow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)
64%
Dinamo Moscow (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Dinamo Moscow away — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 1.92 + Dinamo Moscow defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.65

Dinamo Moscow attack 1.41 + Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Krasnodar scores more
48%
level
24%
Dinamo Moscow scores more
27%

Krasnodar at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Krasnodar 0–2 Dinamo Moscow

Dinamo Moscow beat Krasnodar 2-0 in Premier League on July 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.