Krasnodar 0–1 Akhmat Grozny: Result & Stats

Krasnodar

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Akhmat Grozny

10/21/2018

Premier League · Round 11Krasnodar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Krasnodar54%

×Draw24%

Akhmat Grozny22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KrasnodarExpected goals in this matchAkhmat Grozny

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.97

Krasnodar

1.69

Akhmat Grozny

0.97

Krasnodar creates 74% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 121 away

1.92

creates per match

1.01

0.93

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Krasnodar

1.92

Akhmat Grozny

1.01

allows per match

Krasnodar

0.93

Akhmat Grozny

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar+0.00on par

Akhmat Grozny+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar ↓

Akhmat Grozny →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Krasnodar or draw

78%

Krasnodar or Akhmat Grozny

76%

Draw or Akhmat Grozny

46%

Winning margin

Krasnodar wins by 2+

30%

Akhmat Grozny wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Krasnodar 1+ goals

82%

Krasnodar 2+ goals

50%

Krasnodar 3+ goals

24%

Akhmat Grozny 1+ goals

62%

Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals

25%

Akhmat Grozny 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar (draw refunded)

71%

Akhmat Grozny (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.93 · 120 matches

Akhmat Grozny away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.47 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar attack 1.92 + Akhmat Grozny defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.69

Akhmat Grozny attack 1.01 + Krasnodar defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Krasnodar scores more

54%

level

24%

Akhmat Grozny scores more

22%

Krasnodar at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Krasnodar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff