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Krasnodar U20 vs Ural U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U20
Krasnodar U20
PST
22:00
Ural U20
Ural U20
5/1/2020Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Krasnodar U2057%
×Draw22%
Ural U2021%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U20
1.96
Ural U20
1.10

Krasnodar U20 creates 78% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 99 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U20
1.85
Ural U20
1.01

allows per match

Krasnodar U20
1.20
Ural U20
2.06

finishing

Krasnodar U20+0.00on par
Ural U20+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U20 ↓

Ural U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Krasnodar U20 or draw
79%
Krasnodar U20 or Ural U20
78%
Draw or Ural U20
43%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U20 wins by 2+
34%
Ural U20 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Krasnodar U20 1+ goals
86%
Krasnodar U20 2+ goals
58%
Krasnodar U20 3+ goals
31%
Ural U20 1+ goals
67%
Ural U20 2+ goals
30%
Ural U20 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U20 (draw refunded)
73%
Ural U20 (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U20 at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

Ural U20 away — creates 1.01, concedes 2.06 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U20 attack 1.85 + Ural U20 defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.96

Ural U20 attack 1.01 + Krasnodar U20 defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Krasnodar U20 scores more
57%
level
22%
Ural U20 scores more
21%

Krasnodar U20 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Krasnodar U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Krasnodar U20 face Ural U20 (Youth Championship)

Youth Championship returns with Krasnodar U20 hosting Ural U20. Match starts May 1, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.