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Krasnodar U19 vs Strogino U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
FT
2 – 0
Strogino U20
Strogino U20
5/5/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Championship Round - 6Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Krasnodar U1962%
×Draw19%
Strogino U2019%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U19
2.33
Strogino U20
1.22

Krasnodar U19 creates 91% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 56 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U19
2.76
Strogino U20
1.45

allows per match

Krasnodar U19
0.99
Strogino U20
1.91

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par
Strogino U20+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

Strogino U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw
81%
Krasnodar U19 or Strogino U20
81%
Draw or Strogino U20
38%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
40%
Strogino U20 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
90%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
67%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
41%
Strogino U20 1+ goals
70%
Strogino U20 2+ goals
34%
Strogino U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
77%
Strogino U20 (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Strogino U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.91 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + Strogino U20 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.33

Strogino U20 attack 1.45 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more
62%
level
19%
Strogino U20 scores more
19%

Krasnodar U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar U19 vs Strogino U20

Krasnodar U19 beat Strogino U20 2-0 in Youth Championship on May 5, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.