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Krasnodar U19 vs Spartak Moskva U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Krasnodar U19
Krasnodar U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Moskva U19
Spartak Moskva U19
11/24/2023Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 18Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Krasnodar U1956%
×Draw21%
Spartak Moskva U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar U19
2.09
Spartak Moskva U19
1.29

Krasnodar U19 creates 62% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Krasnodar U19
2.76
Spartak Moskva U19
1.58

allows per match

Krasnodar U19
0.99
Spartak Moskva U19
1.42

finishing

Krasnodar U19+0.00on par
Spartak Moskva U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar U19 ↓

Spartak Moskva U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Krasnodar U19 or draw
77%
Krasnodar U19 or Spartak Moskva U19
79%
Draw or Spartak Moskva U19
44%

Winning margin

Krasnodar U19 wins by 2+
33%
Spartak Moskva U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Krasnodar U19 1+ goals
88%
Krasnodar U19 2+ goals
62%
Krasnodar U19 3+ goals
34%
Spartak Moskva U19 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Moskva U19 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Moskva U19 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar U19 (draw refunded)
70%
Spartak Moskva U19 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar U19 at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.99 · 80 matches

Spartak Moskva U19 away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.42 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar U19 attack 2.76 + Spartak Moskva U19 defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.09

Spartak Moskva U19 attack 1.58 + Krasnodar U19 defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Krasnodar U19 scores more
56%
level
21%
Spartak Moskva U19 scores more
23%

Krasnodar U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Krasnodar U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar U19 vs Spartak Moskva U19

Krasnodar U19 and Spartak Moskva U19 drew 1-1 in Youth Championship on November 24, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.