Krasnodar 2 1–1 Tom Tomsk: Result & Stats

Krasnodar 2

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Tom Tomsk

8/26/2018

First League · Round 8Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar (Krasnodar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Krasnodar 243%

×Draw27%

Tom Tomsk30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krasnodar 2Expected goals in this matchTom Tomsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.07

Krasnodar 2

1.33

Tom Tomsk

1.07

Krasnodar 2 creates 24% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 74 away

1.35

creates per match

0.91

1.24

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Krasnodar 2

1.35

Tom Tomsk

0.91

allows per match

Krasnodar 2

1.24

Tom Tomsk

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par

Tom Tomsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Tom Tomsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw

70%

Krasnodar 2 or Tom Tomsk

73%

Draw or Tom Tomsk

57%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+

20%

Tom Tomsk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals

74%

Krasnodar 2 2+ goals

38%

Krasnodar 2 3+ goals

15%

Tom Tomsk 1+ goals

66%

Tom Tomsk 2+ goals

29%

Tom Tomsk 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)

59%

Tom Tomsk (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

Tom Tomsk away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + Tom Tomsk defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Tom Tomsk attack 0.91 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more

43%

level

27%

Tom Tomsk scores more

30%

Krasnodar 2 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff