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Krasnodar 2 vs FK Neftekhimik — First League 2018

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
CANC
00:00
FK Neftekhimik
FK Neftekhimik
3/23/2020First LeagueFirst League · Round 28Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Krasnodar 239%
×Draw27%
FK Neftekhimik34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.27
FK Neftekhimik
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 88 home / 123 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.35
FK Neftekhimik
1.12

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.24
FK Neftekhimik
1.19

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
FK Neftekhimik+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

FK Neftekhimik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
66%
Krasnodar 2 or FK Neftekhimik
73%
Draw or FK Neftekhimik
61%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
17%
FK Neftekhimik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
72%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
36%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
14%
FK Neftekhimik 1+ goals
69%
FK Neftekhimik 2+ goals
33%
FK Neftekhimik 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
53%
FK Neftekhimik (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

FK Neftekhimik away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.19 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.35 + FK Neftekhimik defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Neftekhimik attack 1.12 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
39%
level
27%
FK Neftekhimik scores more
34%

Krasnodar 2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Krasnodar 2 host FK Neftekhimik

March 23, 2020: Krasnodar 2 take on FK Neftekhimik in First League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Krasnodar 2 host FK Neftekhimik at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.