Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Krasnodar 2 vs Akron — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Krasnodar 2
Krasnodar 2
FT
3 – 1
Akron
Akron
7/11/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Krasnodar 239%
×Draw28%
Akron34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Krasnodar 2
1.25
Akron
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

creates per match

Krasnodar 2
1.20
Akron
1.30

allows per match

Krasnodar 2
1.00
Akron
1.30

finishing

Krasnodar 2+0.00on par
Akron+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krasnodar 2 ↓

Akron →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Krasnodar 2 or draw
66%
Krasnodar 2 or Akron
72%
Draw or Akron
61%

Winning margin

Krasnodar 2 wins by 2+
17%
Akron wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Krasnodar 2 1+ goals
71%
Krasnodar 2 2+ goals
36%
Krasnodar 2 3+ goals
13%
Akron 1+ goals
68%
Akron 2+ goals
32%
Akron 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Krasnodar 2 (draw refunded)
53%
Akron (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krasnodar 2 at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Akron away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krasnodar 2 attack 1.20 + Akron defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Akron attack 1.30 + Krasnodar 2 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Krasnodar 2 scores more
39%
level
28%
Akron scores more
34%

Krasnodar 2 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Krasnodar 2 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Krasnodar 2 vs Akron

Krasnodar 2 beat Akron 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii FK Krasnodar in Krasnodar.