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Kraft vs VIFK — Kakkonen - Lohko C 2018

Kraft
Kraft
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
VIFK
VIFK
8/12/2018Kakkonen - Lohko CKakkonen - Lohko C · Round 16Mosedal (Närpiö (Närpes))

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kraft46%
×Draw22%
VIFK32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kraft
1.92
VIFK
1.57

Kraft creates 22% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 72 away

creates per match

Kraft
1.88
VIFK
1.36

allows per match

Kraft
1.78
VIFK
1.97

finishing

Kraft+0.00on par
VIFK+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kraft ↓

VIFK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kraft or draw
68%
Kraft or VIFK
78%
Draw or VIFK
54%

Winning margin

Kraft wins by 2+
26%
VIFK wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kraft 1+ goals
85%
Kraft 2+ goals
57%
Kraft 3+ goals
30%
VIFK 1+ goals
79%
VIFK 2+ goals
46%
VIFK 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kraft (draw refunded)
59%
VIFK (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kraft at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.78 · 67 matches

VIFK away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.97 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kraft attack 1.88 + VIFK defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.92

VIFK attack 1.36 + Kraft defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kraft scores more
46%
level
22%
VIFK scores more
32%

Kraft at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kraft will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko C: Kraft 1–1 VIFK

Kraft and VIFK drew 1-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko C on August 12, 2018.

The match was played at Mosedal (Närpiö (Närpes)).