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Kozlovice vs Viktorie Přerov — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kozlovice
Kozlovice
FT
4 – 0
Viktorie Přerov
Viktorie Přerov
9/22/20194. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Round 8Areal Sportu Kozlovice (Kozlovice)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Kozlovice60%
×Draw19%
Viktorie Přerov21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozlovice
2.37
Viktorie Přerov
1.35

Kozlovice creates 76% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 53 away

creates per match

Kozlovice
2.39
Viktorie Přerov
1.51

allows per match

Kozlovice
1.19
Viktorie Přerov
2.34

finishing

Kozlovice+0.00on par
Viktorie Přerov+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozlovice ↓

Viktorie Přerov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kozlovice or draw
79%
Kozlovice or Viktorie Přerov
81%
Draw or Viktorie Přerov
40%

Winning margin

Kozlovice wins by 2+
38%
Viktorie Přerov wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kozlovice 1+ goals
91%
Kozlovice 2+ goals
68%
Kozlovice 3+ goals
42%
Viktorie Přerov 1+ goals
74%
Viktorie Přerov 2+ goals
39%
Viktorie Přerov 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kozlovice (draw refunded)
74%
Viktorie Přerov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozlovice at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.19 · 80 matches

Viktorie Přerov away — creates 1.51, concedes 2.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozlovice attack 2.39 + Viktorie Přerov defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 2.37

Viktorie Přerov attack 1.51 + Kozlovice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kozlovice scores more
60%
level
19%
Viktorie Přerov scores more
21%

Kozlovice at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kozlovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozlovice vs Viktorie Přerov

Kozlovice beat Viktorie Přerov 4-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on September 22, 2019.

The match was played at Areal Sportu Kozlovice (Kozlovice).