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Köttmannsdorf vs Kraig — Landesliga - Karnten 2019

Köttmannsdorf
Köttmannsdorf
CANC
21:00
Kraig
Kraig
5/30/2021Landesliga - KarntenLandesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 28Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Köttmannsdorf53%
×Draw22%
Kraig25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köttmannsdorf
1.91
Kraig
1.23

Köttmannsdorf creates 55% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 63 away

creates per match

Köttmannsdorf
1.63
Kraig
1.06

allows per match

Köttmannsdorf
1.41
Kraig
2.19

finishing

Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par
Kraig+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köttmannsdorf ↓

Kraig →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Köttmannsdorf or draw
75%
Köttmannsdorf or Kraig
78%
Draw or Kraig
47%

Winning margin

Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+
30%
Kraig wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals
85%
Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals
57%
Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals
30%
Kraig 1+ goals
71%
Kraig 2+ goals
35%
Kraig 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)
68%
Kraig (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köttmannsdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

Kraig away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.63 + Kraig defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.91

Kraig attack 1.06 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Köttmannsdorf scores more
53%
level
22%
Kraig scores more
25%

Köttmannsdorf at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Köttmannsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Köttmannsdorf vs Kraig — Match Preview

Köttmannsdorf face Kraig on May 30, 2021 in this Landesliga - Karnten fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Köttmannsdorf host Kraig at Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.