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Kortrijk vs Knokke — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kortrijk
Kortrijk
Preview
09:00
Knokke
Knokke
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
55%
Kortrijk
model favours
55%22%23%

Kortrijk score first in only 31% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kortrijk55%
×Draw22%
Knokke23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kortrijk
1.93
Knokke
1.17

Kortrijk creates 65% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kortrijk
0.86
Knokke
1.33

allows per match

Kortrijk
1.00
Knokke
3.00

finishing

Kortrijk+0.00on par
Knokke+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Knokke →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw
77%
Kortrijk or Knokke
78%
Draw or Knokke
45%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+
32%
Knokke wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals
85%
Kortrijk 2+ goals
57%
Kortrijk 3+ goals
30%
Knokke 1+ goals
69%
Knokke 2+ goals
33%
Knokke 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)
71%
Knokke (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Knokke away — creates 1.33, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 0.86 + Knokke defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 1.93

Knokke attack 1.33 + Kortrijk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kortrijk scores more
55%
level
22%
Knokke scores more
23%

Kortrijk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kortrijk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kortrijk
LDLWW
Knokke
LDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kortrijk vs Knokke — Match Preview

Kortrijk face Knokke on July 25, 2026 in this Friendlies Clubs fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.