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Kortrijk vs Anderlecht — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Kortrijk
Kortrijk
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Anderlecht
Anderlecht
4/10/2022Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 34Guldensporenstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Kortrijk34%
×Draw25%
Anderlecht42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kortrijk
1.36
Anderlecht
1.54

Anderlecht creates 13% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kortrijk
0.85
Anderlecht
1.33

allows per match

Kortrijk
1.75
Anderlecht
1.87

finishing

Kortrijk+0.15scores more
Anderlecht-0.20scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kortrijk ↓

Anderlecht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kortrijk or draw
58%
Kortrijk or Anderlecht
75%
Draw or Anderlecht
66%

Winning margin

Kortrijk wins by 2+
15%
Anderlecht wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kortrijk 1+ goals
74%
Kortrijk 2+ goals
39%
Kortrijk 3+ goals
16%
Anderlecht 1+ goals
79%
Anderlecht 2+ goals
45%
Anderlecht 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kortrijk (draw refunded)
45%
Anderlecht (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kortrijk at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.75 · 5 matches

Anderlecht away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kortrijk attack 0.85 + Anderlecht defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.36

Anderlecht attack 1.33 + Kortrijk defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kortrijk scores more
34%
level
25%
Anderlecht scores more
42%

Anderlecht at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Anderlecht will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kortrijk vs Anderlecht

Anderlecht beat Kortrijk 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on April 10, 2022.

The match was played at Guldensporenstadion in Kortrijk.