Korona Kielce 3–1 Zaglebie Sosnowiec

Korona Kielce

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

9/24/2018

Ekstraklasa · Round 9Kolporter Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Korona Kielce52%

×Draw25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korona KielceExpected goals in this matchZaglebie Sosnowiec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

0.96

Korona Kielce

1.60

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.96

Korona Kielce creates 67% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 19 away

1.21

creates per match

0.79

1.13

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Korona Kielce

1.21

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

0.79

allows per match

Korona Kielce

1.13

Zaglebie Sosnowiec

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korona Kielce+0.00on par

Zaglebie Sosnowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Zaglebie Sosnowiec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw

77%

Korona Kielce or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

75%

Draw or Zaglebie Sosnowiec

48%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+

28%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals

80%

Korona Kielce 2+ goals

47%

Korona Kielce 3+ goals

22%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 1+ goals

62%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 2+ goals

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)

70%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.13 · 105 matches

Zaglebie Sosnowiec away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.21 + Zaglebie Sosnowiec defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zaglebie Sosnowiec attack 0.79 + Korona Kielce defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Korona Kielce scores more

52%

level

25%

Zaglebie Sosnowiec scores more

23%

Korona Kielce at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff