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Korona Kielce vs Lech Poznan — Ekstraklasa 2018

Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
12/2/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 17Suzuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Korona Kielce35%
×Draw25%
Lech Poznan40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce
1.37
Lech Poznan
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 26 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce
1.61
Lech Poznan
1.53

allows per match

Korona Kielce
1.42
Lech Poznan
1.13

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.18scores less
Lech Poznan-0.30scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Lech Poznan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw
60%
Korona Kielce or Lech Poznan
75%
Draw or Lech Poznan
65%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+
16%
Lech Poznan wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals
75%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
40%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
16%
Lech Poznan 1+ goals
77%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
43%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
47%
Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.13 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.61 + Lech Poznan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.37

Lech Poznan attack 1.53 + Korona Kielce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Korona Kielce scores more
35%
level
25%
Lech Poznan scores more
40%

Lech Poznan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Korona Kielce 0–1 Lech Poznan

Lech Poznan beat Korona Kielce 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 2, 2023.

The match was played at Suzuki Arena in Kielce.