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Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2018

Korona Kielce
Korona Kielce
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
11/11/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 15Suzuki Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Korona Kielce43%
×Draw24%
Jagiellonia33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce
1.65
Jagiellonia
1.40

Korona Kielce creates 18% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce
1.61
Jagiellonia
1.37

allows per match

Korona Kielce
1.42
Jagiellonia
1.68

finishing

Korona Kielce-0.18scores less
Jagiellonia-0.10scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Korona Kielce or draw
67%
Korona Kielce or Jagiellonia
76%
Draw or Jagiellonia
57%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce wins by 2+
22%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Korona Kielce 1+ goals
81%
Korona Kielce 2+ goals
49%
Korona Kielce 3+ goals
23%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
75%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
41%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce (draw refunded)
57%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.42 · 14 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.68 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce attack 1.61 + Jagiellonia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.65

Jagiellonia attack 1.37 + Korona Kielce defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Korona Kielce scores more
43%
level
24%
Jagiellonia scores more
33%

Korona Kielce at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Korona Kielce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce vs Jagiellonia

Korona Kielce and Jagiellonia drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Suzuki Arena in Kielce.