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Kornburg vs Würzburger FV — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Würzburger FV
Würzburger FV
M. Hanschke 69' (pen)
4/28/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 30Sportanlage TSV Kornburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kornburg50%
×Draw23%
Würzburger FV27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.79
Würzburger FV
1.24

Kornburg creates 44% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
Würzburger FV
1.32

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
Würzburger FV
1.97

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
Würzburger FV+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Würzburger FV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
73%
Kornburg or Würzburger FV
77%
Draw or Würzburger FV
50%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
28%
Würzburger FV wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
83%
Kornburg 2+ goals
53%
Kornburg 3+ goals
26%
Würzburger FV 1+ goals
71%
Würzburger FV 2+ goals
35%
Würzburger FV 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
65%
Würzburger FV (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Würzburger FV away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.97 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Würzburger FV defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.79

Würzburger FV attack 1.32 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kornburg scores more
50%
level
23%
Würzburger FV scores more
27%

Kornburg at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. Gundling
54'
T. Olschewski
54'
T. Olschewski
68'
A. Schuster
69'
M. HanschkePenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kornburg vs Würzburger FV

Würzburger FV beat Kornburg 1-0 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on April 28, 2023.

Goals: M. Hanschke (69' pen).

The match was played at Sportanlage TSV Kornburg in Nürnberg.