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Kornburg vs Gebenbach — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
Preview
17:00
Gebenbach
Gebenbach
9/4/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 9
Big match
39%
Kornburg
model favours
39%24%37%

Kornburg win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
63%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kornburg39%
×Draw24%
Gebenbach37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.62
Gebenbach
1.57

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 68 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
Gebenbach
1.99

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
Gebenbach
1.62

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
Gebenbach+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Gebenbach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
63%
Kornburg or Gebenbach
76%
Draw or Gebenbach
61%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
20%
Gebenbach wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
80%
Kornburg 2+ goals
48%
Kornburg 3+ goals
22%
Gebenbach 1+ goals
79%
Gebenbach 2+ goals
46%
Gebenbach 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
51%
Gebenbach (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Gebenbach away — creates 1.99, concedes 1.62 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Gebenbach defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.62

Gebenbach attack 1.99 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kornburg scores more
39%
level
24%
Gebenbach scores more
37%

Kornburg at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gebenbach win just 36% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kornburg
LLLLD
Gebenbach
WWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kornburg host Gebenbach

September 4, 2026: Kornburg take on Gebenbach in Oberliga - Bayern Nord. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.