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Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
Preview
17:00
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
8/21/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 7
Big match
46%
Kornburg
model favours
46%23%31%

Kornburg win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kornburg46%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Regensburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.74
Fortuna Regensburg
1.40

Kornburg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
Fortuna Regensburg
1.63

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
Fortuna Regensburg
1.86

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
69%
Kornburg or Fortuna Regensburg
77%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
54%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
82%
Kornburg 2+ goals
52%
Kornburg 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
41%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
59%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.86 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.63 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kornburg scores more
46%
level
23%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
31%

Kornburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 6 meetings
  • Their last 6 meetings averaged 4.3 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kornburg
LLLLD
Regensburg
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kornburg face Fortuna Regensburg (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Kornburg hosting Fortuna Regensburg. Match starts August 21, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.