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Kornburg vs Fortuna Regensburg — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Regensburg
Fortuna Regensburg
S. Herzel 15'
F. Ziegler 64'
J. Sarajlic 62'
M. Sautner 27'
9/9/2023Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 11Sportanlage TSV Kornburg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kornburg46%
×Draw23%
Fortuna Regensburg31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.74
Fortuna Regensburg
1.38

Kornburg creates 26% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
Fortuna Regensburg
1.60

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
Fortuna Regensburg
1.85

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
Fortuna Regensburg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

Fortuna Regensburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
69%
Kornburg or Fortuna Regensburg
77%
Draw or Fortuna Regensburg
54%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
24%
Fortuna Regensburg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
82%
Kornburg 2+ goals
52%
Kornburg 3+ goals
25%
Fortuna Regensburg 1+ goals
75%
Fortuna Regensburg 2+ goals
40%
Fortuna Regensburg 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
60%
Fortuna Regensburg (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

Fortuna Regensburg away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.85 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + Fortuna Regensburg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.74

Fortuna Regensburg attack 1.60 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kornburg scores more
46%
level
23%
Fortuna Regensburg scores more
31%

Kornburg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
S. Herzel
27'
M. Sautner
62'
J. Sarajlic
64'
F. Ziegler

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Nord: Kornburg 1–3 Fortuna Regensburg

Fortuna Regensburg beat Kornburg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Nord on September 9, 2023.

Goals: S. Herzel (15'), M. Sautner (27'), J. Sarajlic (62'), F. Ziegler (64').

The match was played at Sportanlage TSV Kornburg in Nürnberg.