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Kornburg vs ASV Neumarkt — Oberliga - Bayern Nord 2026

Kornburg
Kornburg
Preview
18:00
ASV Neumarkt
ASV Neumarkt
11/20/2026Oberliga - Bayern NordOberliga - Bayern Nord · Bayern Nord - 20
Big match
45%
Kornburg
model favours
45%24%31%

Kornburg win just 22% against the top half (vs 54% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kornburg45%
×Draw24%
ASV Neumarkt31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kornburg
1.70
ASV Neumarkt
1.37

Kornburg creates 24% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 69 away

creates per match

Kornburg
1.62
ASV Neumarkt
1.58

allows per match

Kornburg
1.16
ASV Neumarkt
1.77

finishing

Kornburg+0.00on par
ASV Neumarkt+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kornburg ↓

ASV Neumarkt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kornburg or draw
69%
Kornburg or ASV Neumarkt
76%
Draw or ASV Neumarkt
55%

Winning margin

Kornburg wins by 2+
24%
ASV Neumarkt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kornburg 1+ goals
82%
Kornburg 2+ goals
51%
Kornburg 3+ goals
24%
ASV Neumarkt 1+ goals
75%
ASV Neumarkt 2+ goals
40%
ASV Neumarkt 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kornburg (draw refunded)
59%
ASV Neumarkt (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kornburg at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

ASV Neumarkt away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.77 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kornburg attack 1.62 + ASV Neumarkt defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.70

ASV Neumarkt attack 1.58 + Kornburg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kornburg scores more
45%
level
24%
ASV Neumarkt scores more
31%

Kornburg at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kornburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Kornburg
LLLLD
Neumarkt
LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kornburg face ASV Neumarkt (Oberliga - Bayern Nord)

Oberliga - Bayern Nord returns with Kornburg hosting ASV Neumarkt. Match starts November 20, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.