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Kormákur / Hvöt vs Fjolnir — 2. Deild 2025

Kormákur / Hvöt
Kormákur / Hvöt
Preview
14:00
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
9/12/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 22
45%
Kormákur / Hvöt
model favours
45%21%34%

Kormákur / Hvöt score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
76%
over 2.5 goals
75%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Kormákur / Hvöt45%
×Draw21%
Fjolnir34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kormákur / Hvöt
2.17
Fjolnir
1.86

Kormákur / Hvöt creates 17% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 6 away

creates per match

Kormákur / Hvöt
2.00
Fjolnir
2.33

allows per match

Kormákur / Hvöt
1.39
Fjolnir
2.33

finishing

Kormákur / Hvöt+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kormákur / Hvöt ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Kormákur / Hvöt or draw
66%
Kormákur / Hvöt or Fjolnir
79%
Draw or Fjolnir
55%

Winning margin

Kormákur / Hvöt wins by 2+
26%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kormákur / Hvöt 1+ goals
89%
Kormákur / Hvöt 2+ goals
64%
Kormákur / Hvöt 3+ goals
36%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
84%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
55%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Kormákur / Hvöt (draw refunded)
57%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kormákur / Hvöt at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.39 · 18 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kormákur / Hvöt attack 2.00 + Fjolnir defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Fjolnir attack 2.33 + Kormákur / Hvöt defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kormákur / Hvöt scores more
45%
level
21%
Fjolnir scores more
34%

Kormákur / Hvöt at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kormákur / Hvöt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Fjolnir score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 91% of Fjolnir’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 73% over 2.5)
  • 83% of Kormákur / Hvöt’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Fjolnir have scored in 11 games running
  • Both teams score in 83% of Kormákur / Hvöt’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Hvöt
DDWDL
Fjolnir
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kormákur / Hvöt host Fjolnir

September 12, 2026: Kormákur / Hvöt take on Fjolnir in 2. Deild. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.