Kórdrengir 3–1 Selfoss: Result & Stats | 2. Deild

Kórdrengir

FT

3 – 1

Selfoss

9/23/2020

2. Deild · Round 18Framvöllur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Kórdrengir50%

×Draw23%

Selfoss27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KórdrengirExpected goals in this matchSelfoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.33

Kórdrengir

1.87

Selfoss

1.33

Kórdrengir creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 38 away

2.40

creates per match

1.97

0.70

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Kórdrengir

2.40

Selfoss

1.97

allows per match

Kórdrengir

0.70

Selfoss

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kórdrengir+0.00on par

Selfoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kórdrengir ↓

Selfoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kórdrengir or draw

73%

Kórdrengir or Selfoss

77%

Draw or Selfoss

50%

Winning margin

Kórdrengir wins by 2+

28%

Selfoss wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kórdrengir 1+ goals

85%

Kórdrengir 2+ goals

56%

Kórdrengir 3+ goals

29%

Selfoss 1+ goals

74%

Selfoss 2+ goals

38%

Selfoss 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Kórdrengir (draw refunded)

65%

Selfoss (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kórdrengir at home — creates 2.40, concedes 0.70 · 10 matches

Selfoss away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.34 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kórdrengir attack 2.40 + Selfoss defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.87

Selfoss attack 1.97 + Kórdrengir defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kórdrengir scores more

50%

level

23%

Selfoss scores more

27%

Kórdrengir at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kórdrengir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff