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Korba vs Kalaâ Sport — Ligue 2 2020

Korba
Korba
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Kalaâ Sport
Kalaâ Sport
11/11/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 6Stade de Korba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Korba53%
×Draw28%
Kalaâ Sport18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korba
1.35
Kalaâ Sport
0.66

Korba creates 105% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 61 away

creates per match

Korba
1.20
Kalaâ Sport
0.70

allows per match

Korba
0.62
Kalaâ Sport
1.51

finishing

Korba+0.00on par
Kalaâ Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korba ↓

Kalaâ Sport →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Korba or draw
82%
Korba or Kalaâ Sport
72%
Draw or Kalaâ Sport
47%

Winning margin

Korba wins by 2+
26%
Kalaâ Sport wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Korba 1+ goals
74%
Korba 2+ goals
39%
Korba 3+ goals
15%
Kalaâ Sport 1+ goals
48%
Kalaâ Sport 2+ goals
14%
Kalaâ Sport 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Korba (draw refunded)
75%
Kalaâ Sport (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korba at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.62 · 61 matches

Kalaâ Sport away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.51 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korba attack 1.20 + Kalaâ Sport defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kalaâ Sport attack 0.70 + Korba defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Korba scores more
53%
level
28%
Kalaâ Sport scores more
18%

Korba at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Korba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korba vs Kalaâ Sport

Korba beat Kalaâ Sport 1-0 in Ligue 2 on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Korba in Korba.