Korabi Peshkopi 1–0 Erzeni Shijak: Result & Stats

Korabi Peshkopi

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Erzeni Shijak

12/19/2020

1st Division · Round 8Stadiumi Korabi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Korabi Peshkopi46%

×Draw28%

Erzeni Shijak27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Korabi PeshkopiExpected goals in this matchErzeni Shijak

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.95

Korabi Peshkopi

1.34

Erzeni Shijak

0.95

Korabi Peshkopi creates 41% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 55 away

1.39

creates per match

1.15

0.76

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Korabi Peshkopi

1.39

Erzeni Shijak

1.15

allows per match

Korabi Peshkopi

0.76

Erzeni Shijak

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Korabi Peshkopi+0.00on par

Erzeni Shijak+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korabi Peshkopi ↓

Erzeni Shijak →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Korabi Peshkopi or draw

73%

Korabi Peshkopi or Erzeni Shijak

72%

Draw or Erzeni Shijak

54%

Winning margin

Korabi Peshkopi wins by 2+

21%

Erzeni Shijak wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Korabi Peshkopi 1+ goals

74%

Korabi Peshkopi 2+ goals

39%

Korabi Peshkopi 3+ goals

15%

Erzeni Shijak 1+ goals

61%

Erzeni Shijak 2+ goals

25%

Erzeni Shijak 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Korabi Peshkopi (draw refunded)

63%

Erzeni Shijak (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korabi Peshkopi at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

Erzeni Shijak away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.29 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korabi Peshkopi attack 1.39 + Erzeni Shijak defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.34

Erzeni Shijak attack 1.15 + Korabi Peshkopi defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Korabi Peshkopi scores more

46%

level

28%

Erzeni Shijak scores more

27%

Korabi Peshkopi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Korabi Peshkopi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff