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Kooteepee vs SJK Akatemia — Ykkösliiga 2026

Kooteepee
Kooteepee
Preview
15:30
SJK Akatemia
SJK Akatemia
7/31/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageArto Tolsa Areena
Big match
61%
Kooteepee
model favours
61%20%19%

SJK Akatemia score first in only 14% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
62%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kooteepee61%
×Draw20%
SJK Akatemia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kooteepee
2.14
SJK Akatemia
1.09

Kooteepee creates 96% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kooteepee
2.45
SJK Akatemia
1.14

allows per match

Kooteepee
1.05
SJK Akatemia
1.83

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par
SJK Akatemia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 62Under: 3862%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

SJK Akatemia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw
81%
Kooteepee or SJK Akatemia
80%
Draw or SJK Akatemia
39%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+
38%
SJK Akatemia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals
88%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
63%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
36%
SJK Akatemia 1+ goals
66%
SJK Akatemia 2+ goals
30%
SJK Akatemia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)
77%
SJK Akatemia (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

SJK Akatemia away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 2.45 + SJK Akatemia defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.14

SJK Akatemia attack 1.14 + Kooteepee defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Kooteepee scores more
61%
level
20%
SJK Akatemia scores more
19%

Kooteepee at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Kooteepee’s matches
  • Kooteepee score first in only 29% of matches
  • Kooteepee have won 7 of the last 9 meetings
  • SJK Akatemia win just 19% of their away games
  • SJK Akatemia win just 9% against the top half (vs 38% against the bottom)
  • 35% of SJK Akatemia’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kooteepee
DLWDW
Akatemia
DDDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kooteepee vs SJK Akatemia — Match Preview

Kooteepee face SJK Akatemia on July 31, 2026 in this Ykkösliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kooteepee host SJK Akatemia at Arto Tolsa Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.