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Kooteepee vs KäPa — Ykkösliiga 2026

Kooteepee
Kooteepee
Preview
17:00
KäPa
KäPa
8/15/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageArto Tolsa Areena
Big match
63%
Kooteepee
model favours
63%18%18%

KäPa score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
71%
over 2.5 goals
65%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kooteepee63%
×Draw18%
KäPa18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kooteepee
2.46
KäPa
1.26

Kooteepee creates 95% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kooteepee
2.45
KäPa
1.47

allows per match

Kooteepee
1.05
KäPa
2.47

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 71Under: 2971%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 65No: 3565%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw
82%
Kooteepee or KäPa
82%
Draw or KäPa
37%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+
42%
KäPa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals
91%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
70%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
44%
KäPa 1+ goals
72%
KäPa 2+ goals
36%
KäPa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)
78%
KäPa (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 2.45 + KäPa defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.46

KäPa attack 1.47 + Kooteepee defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kooteepee scores more
63%
level
18%
KäPa scores more
18%

Kooteepee at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Kooteepee’s matches
  • Kooteepee score first in only 29% of matches
  • Kooteepee have won 6 of the last 6 meetings
  • Both teams score in 72% of KäPa’s matches
  • Both sides lean high-scoring (65% and 67% over 2.5)
  • 67% of KäPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kooteepee
DLWDW
KäPa
LLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kooteepee host KäPa

August 15, 2026: Kooteepee take on KäPa in Ykkösliiga. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Kooteepee host KäPa at Arto Tolsa Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.