Kooteepee 2–1 KäPa: Result & Stats | Ykkösliiga

Kooteepee

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

KäPa

A. Tanninen 80'

A. Tarvonen 11'

E. Kallio 27'

5/27/2024

Ykkösliiga · Round 9Arto Tolsa Areena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kooteepee63%

×Draw18%

KäPa18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KooteepeeExpected goals in this matchKäPa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.26

Kooteepee

2.46

KäPa

1.26

Kooteepee creates 95% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 38 away

2.45

creates per match

1.47

1.05

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Kooteepee

2.45

KäPa

1.47

allows per match

Kooteepee

1.05

KäPa

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par

KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

KäPa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw

82%

Kooteepee or KäPa

82%

Draw or KäPa

37%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+

42%

KäPa wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals

91%

Kooteepee 2+ goals

70%

Kooteepee 3+ goals

44%

KäPa 1+ goals

72%

KäPa 2+ goals

36%

KäPa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)

78%

KäPa (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

KäPa away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 2.45 + KäPa defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.46

KäPa attack 1.47 + Kooteepee defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kooteepee scores more

63%

level

18%

KäPa scores more

18%

Kooteepee at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

A. Tarvonen

27'

E. Kallio

29'

M. Turunen

46'

M. Paavola← V. Vesiaho

61'

B. Heikkinen← S. Tammivuori

61'

W. Haapiainen← M. Turunen

66'

71'

P. Hietalahti← E. Kallio

71'

N. Nurmi← T. Pasi

72'

L. Weckström← S. Stenius

72'

A. Tanninen← A. Tarvonen

72'

80'

81'

81'

84'

84'

A. Hyppönen← A. Huttunen

89'

J. Makela

90'

A. Auranen← M. Tolonen

Kooteepee

KäPa

1

Piispa

25

▼

5

13

8

10

▼

Tolonen

11

▼

Tammivuor

31

Jouhi

2

Kauppila

9

▼

Turunen

27

⚽

▼

33

21

17

6

▼

Vesiaho

7

Mäkelä

23

Lindfors

16

▼

Huttunen

5

Wilson

9

⚽

▼

Tarvonen

11

▼

Banza

15

▼

Stenius

Manager: J. Nyholm

46'▲M. Paavola←▼V. Vesiaho

72'▲L. Weckström←▼S. Stenius

72'▲A. Tanninen←▼A. Tarvonen

72'▲A. Harbas←▼E. Banza

84'▲A. Hyppönen←▼A. Huttunen

Kooteepee substitutes

26Paavola10Weckström20Tanninen30Harbas19Hyppönen1Jammeh14Edlund

Manager: S. Okkonen

61'▲B. Heikkinen←▼S. Tammivuori

61'▲W. Haapiainen←▼M. Turunen

71'▲P. Hietalahti←▼E. Kallio

71'▲N. Nurmi←▼T. Pasi

90'▲A. Auranen←▼M. Tolonen

KäPa substitutes

7Heikkinen12Haapiainen4Hietalahti6Nurmi15Auranen18Valakari30Hautamo