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Kooteepee vs JäPS — Ykkösliiga 2026

Kooteepee
Kooteepee
Preview
15:30
JäPS
JäPS
9/11/2026YkkösliigaYkkösliiga · Group StageArto Tolsa Areena
Big match
59%
Kooteepee
model favours
59%20%21%

JäPS score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
68%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kooteepee59%
×Draw20%
JäPS21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kooteepee
2.24
JäPS
1.26

Kooteepee creates 78% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

creates per match

Kooteepee
2.45
JäPS
1.47

allows per match

Kooteepee
1.05
JäPS
2.03

finishing

Kooteepee+0.00on par
JäPS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 68Under: 3268%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kooteepee ↓

JäPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Kooteepee or draw
79%
Kooteepee or JäPS
80%
Draw or JäPS
41%

Winning margin

Kooteepee wins by 2+
37%
JäPS wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kooteepee 1+ goals
89%
Kooteepee 2+ goals
65%
Kooteepee 3+ goals
38%
JäPS 1+ goals
72%
JäPS 2+ goals
36%
JäPS 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Kooteepee (draw refunded)
74%
JäPS (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kooteepee at home — creates 2.45, concedes 1.05 · 22 matches

JäPS away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kooteepee attack 2.45 + JäPS defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 2.24

JäPS attack 1.47 + Kooteepee defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kooteepee scores more
59%
level
20%
JäPS scores more
21%

Kooteepee at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kooteepee will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 82% of Kooteepee’s matches
  • Kooteepee score first in only 29% of matches
  • Kooteepee win just 29% against the top half (vs 85% against the bottom)
  • JäPS win just 21% against the top half (vs 50% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kooteepee
DLWDW
JäPS
WWLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kooteepee vs JäPS — Match Preview

Kooteepee face JäPS on September 11, 2026 in this Ykkösliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kooteepee host JäPS at Arto Tolsa Areena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.