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Köniz vs Schötz — 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 2019

Köniz
Köniz
FT
1 – 0
Schötz
Schötz
8/21/20211. Liga Classic - Group 21. Liga Classic - Group 2 · Group 2 - 1Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Köniz41%
×Draw24%
Schötz35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.56
Schötz
1.41

Köniz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 86 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.28
Schötz
1.62

allows per match

Köniz
1.19
Schötz
1.83

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Schötz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Schötz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
65%
Köniz or Schötz
76%
Draw or Schötz
59%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
20%
Schötz wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
79%
Köniz 2+ goals
46%
Köniz 3+ goals
21%
Schötz 1+ goals
76%
Schötz 2+ goals
41%
Schötz 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
54%
Schötz (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.19 · 43 matches

Schötz away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.83 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.28 + Schötz defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.56

Schötz attack 1.62 + Köniz defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Köniz scores more
41%
level
24%
Schötz scores more
35%

Köniz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Köniz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 2: Köniz 1–0 Schötz

Köniz beat Schötz 1-0 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 2 on August 21, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut in Liebefeld.