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Köniz vs Bellinzona — 1. Liga Promotion 2019

Köniz
Köniz
PST
15:00
Bellinzona
Bellinzona
3/20/20211. Liga Promotion1. Liga Promotion · Round 20Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Köniz28%
×Draw23%
Bellinzona49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köniz
1.31
Bellinzona
1.81

Bellinzona creates 38% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 38 away

creates per match

Köniz
1.16
Bellinzona
1.87

allows per match

Köniz
1.74
Bellinzona
1.47

finishing

Köniz+0.00on par
Bellinzona+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köniz ↓

Bellinzona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Köniz or draw
51%
Köniz or Bellinzona
77%
Draw or Bellinzona
72%

Winning margin

Köniz wins by 2+
12%
Bellinzona wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Köniz 1+ goals
73%
Köniz 2+ goals
38%
Köniz 3+ goals
14%
Bellinzona 1+ goals
84%
Bellinzona 2+ goals
54%
Bellinzona 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Köniz (draw refunded)
36%
Bellinzona (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köniz at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.74 · 19 matches

Bellinzona away — creates 1.87, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köniz attack 1.16 + Bellinzona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.31

Bellinzona attack 1.87 + Köniz defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Köniz scores more
28%
level
23%
Bellinzona scores more
49%

Bellinzona at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Bellinzona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Köniz host Bellinzona

March 20, 2021: Köniz take on Bellinzona in 1. Liga Promotion. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Köniz host Bellinzona at Sportplatz Liebefeld-Hessgut.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.