Kongsvinger 0–1 Stabaek: Result & Stats

Kongsvinger

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Stabaek

K. Pedersen 90+3'

8/27/2022

1. Division · Round 22Gjemselund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Kongsvinger43%

×Draw23%

Stabaek35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KongsvingerExpected goals in this matchStabaek

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.61

Kongsvinger

1.80

Stabaek

1.61

Kongsvinger creates 12% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 53 away

1.95

creates per match

1.81

1.42

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Kongsvinger

1.95

Stabaek

1.81

allows per match

Kongsvinger

1.42

Stabaek

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kongsvinger+0.00on par

Stabaek+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger ↓

Stabaek →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Kongsvinger or draw

65%

Kongsvinger or Stabaek

77%

Draw or Stabaek

57%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger wins by 2+

23%

Stabaek wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kongsvinger 1+ goals

83%

Kongsvinger 2+ goals

54%

Kongsvinger 3+ goals

27%

Stabaek 1+ goals

80%

Stabaek 2+ goals

48%

Stabaek 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)

55%

Stabaek (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.42 · 98 matches

Stabaek away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.66 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger attack 1.95 + Stabaek defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Stabaek attack 1.81 + Kongsvinger defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kongsvinger scores more

43%

level

23%

Stabaek scores more

35%

Kongsvinger at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kongsvinger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

37'

M. Vinjor

63'

F. Azemi← K. Hansen

67'

M. Bringaker← L. Langrekken

73'

M. Sjølstad← T. Murray

73'

E. Taylor← T. Bjørnebye

73'

V. Wernersson← T. Lange

82'

H. Holter

90+3'

K. Pedersen

Kongsvinger

Stabaek

12

Sandberg

4

Wangberg

3

Næss

13

▼

Lange

2

⚽

15

14

8

11

▼

10

16

1

19

2

▼

25

5

6

23

18

▼

Bjørnebye

9

Güven

8

Andersen

22

▼

Langrekke

Manager: E. Mæland

67'▲M. Bringaker←▼L. Langrekken

73'▲M. Sjølstad←▼T. Murray

73'▲E. Taylor←▼T. Bjørnebye

Kongsvinger substitutes

26Bringaker27Sjølstad7Taylor10Gerson24Sandberg32Jørgensen41Lindegaard43Nordstrøm67Høiby

Manager: L. Bohinen

63'▲F. Azemi←▼K. Hansen

73'▲V. Wernersson←▼T. Lange

Stabaek substitutes

7Azemi19Wernersson1Ulla5Jenssen18Metcalfe20Andresen22Vogt27Diabagate