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Kongsvinger vs Haugesund — 1. Division 2026

Kongsvinger
Kongsvinger
Preview
15:00
Haugesund
Haugesund
8/16/20261. Division1. Division · Round 18Gjemselund Stadion
Big match
42%
Haugesund
model favours
38%20%42%

Both sides lean high-scoring (93% and 82% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

2–2
likely score
82%
over 2.5 goals
79%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Kongsvinger38%
×Draw20%
Haugesund42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kongsvinger
2.17
Haugesund
2.27

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 98 home / 8 away

creates per match

Kongsvinger
1.95
Haugesund
3.13

allows per match

Kongsvinger
1.42
Haugesund
2.38

finishing

Kongsvinger+0.00on par
Haugesund+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 82Under: 1882%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 79No: 2179%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kongsvinger ↓

Haugesund →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Kongsvinger or draw
58%
Kongsvinger or Haugesund
80%
Draw or Haugesund
62%

Winning margin

Kongsvinger wins by 2+
21%
Haugesund wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Kongsvinger 1+ goals
89%
Kongsvinger 2+ goals
64%
Kongsvinger 3+ goals
36%
Haugesund 1+ goals
90%
Haugesund 2+ goals
66%
Haugesund 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Kongsvinger (draw refunded)
48%
Haugesund (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kongsvinger at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.42 · 98 matches

Haugesund away — creates 3.13, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kongsvinger attack 1.95 + Haugesund defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 2.17

Haugesund attack 3.13 + Kongsvinger defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 2.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kongsvinger scores more
38%
level
20%
Haugesund scores more
42%

Haugesund at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Haugesund will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 93% of Kongsvinger’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Kongsvinger score first in only 21% of matches
  • Haugesund have scored in 11 games running
  • 82% of Haugesund’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Haugesund have won 3 in a row
  • Both teams score in 79% of Kongsvinger’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kongsvinger
WLDWW
Haugesund
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kongsvinger vs Haugesund — Match Preview

Kongsvinger face Haugesund on August 16, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kongsvinger host Haugesund at Gjemselund Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.