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Kom vs Otrant-Olympic — Second League 2019

Kom
Kom
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Otrant-Olympic
Otrant-Olympic
3/20/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion FK Kom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Kom39%
×Draw28%
Otrant-Olympic33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kom
1.25
Otrant-Olympic
1.13

Kom creates 11% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 68 away

creates per match

Kom
1.31
Otrant-Olympic
1.19

allows per match

Kom
1.06
Otrant-Olympic
1.18

finishing

Kom+0.00on par
Otrant-Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Otrant-Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kom or draw
67%
Kom or Otrant-Olympic
72%
Draw or Otrant-Olympic
61%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+
17%
Otrant-Olympic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals
71%
Kom 2+ goals
36%
Kom 3+ goals
13%
Otrant-Olympic 1+ goals
68%
Otrant-Olympic 2+ goals
31%
Otrant-Olympic 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)
54%
Otrant-Olympic (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Otrant-Olympic away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.18 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.31 + Otrant-Olympic defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.25

Otrant-Olympic attack 1.19 + Kom defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kom scores more
39%
level
28%
Otrant-Olympic scores more
33%

Kom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kom vs Otrant-Olympic

Otrant-Olympic beat Kom 3-0 in Second League on March 20, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kom in Podgorica.