Kom 1–1 Mladost Lješkopolje: Result & Stats

Kom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mladost Lješkopolje

11/12/2023

Second League · Round 16Stadion FK Kom

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kom44%

×Draw26%

Mladost Lješkopolje30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KomExpected goals in this matchMladost Lješkopolje

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.13

Kom

1.44

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.13

Kom creates 27% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 69 away

1.31

creates per match

1.20

1.06

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Kom

1.31

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.20

allows per match

Kom

1.06

Mladost Lješkopolje

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kom+0.00on par

Mladost Lješkopolje+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kom ↓

Mladost Lješkopolje →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kom or draw

70%

Kom or Mladost Lješkopolje

74%

Draw or Mladost Lješkopolje

56%

Winning margin

Kom wins by 2+

21%

Mladost Lješkopolje wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kom 1+ goals

76%

Kom 2+ goals

42%

Kom 3+ goals

18%

Mladost Lješkopolje 1+ goals

68%

Mladost Lješkopolje 2+ goals

31%

Mladost Lješkopolje 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kom (draw refunded)

60%

Mladost Lješkopolje (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kom at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.06 · 105 matches

Mladost Lješkopolje away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kom attack 1.31 + Mladost Lješkopolje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.44

Mladost Lješkopolje attack 1.20 + Kom defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kom scores more

44%

level

26%

Mladost Lješkopolje scores more

30%

Kom at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff