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Kolos Kovalivka vs Zorya Luhansk — Premier League 2019

Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Zorya Luhansk
Zorya Luhansk
9/23/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 7Stadion Kolos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka44%
×Draw25%
Zorya Luhansk31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolos Kovalivka
1.60
Zorya Luhansk
1.30

Kolos Kovalivka creates 23% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.34
Zorya Luhansk
1.44

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.16
Zorya Luhansk
1.86

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka-0.21scores less
Zorya Luhansk+0.10scores more

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Zorya Luhansk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw
69%
Kolos Kovalivka or Zorya Luhansk
75%
Draw or Zorya Luhansk
56%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
23%
Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
80%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
47%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
22%
Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals
73%
Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals
37%
Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
59%
Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.16 · 8 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.86 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.34 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.44 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more
44%
level
25%
Zorya Luhansk scores more
31%

Kolos Kovalivka at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kolos Kovalivka 1–0 Zorya Luhansk

Kolos Kovalivka beat Zorya Luhansk 1-0 in Premier League on September 23, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Kolos in Kovalivka.