Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 Zorya Luhansk: Result & Stats

Kolos Kovalivka

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Zorya Luhansk

V. Brazhko 31'

4/21/2023

Premier League · Round 22Stadion Kovalivka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka46%

×Draw25%

Zorya Luhansk29%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolos KovalivkaExpected goals in this matchZorya Luhansk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.23

Kolos Kovalivka

1.60

Zorya Luhansk

1.23

Kolos Kovalivka creates 30% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.34

creates per match

1.39

1.08

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka

1.34

Zorya Luhansk

1.39

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka

1.08

Zorya Luhansk

1.85

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka-0.34scores less

Zorya Luhansk+0.28scores more

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Zorya Luhansk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw

71%

Kolos Kovalivka or Zorya Luhansk

75%

Draw or Zorya Luhansk

54%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+

24%

Zorya Luhansk wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals

80%

Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals

47%

Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals

22%

Zorya Luhansk 1+ goals

71%

Zorya Luhansk 2+ goals

35%

Zorya Luhansk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)

61%

Zorya Luhansk (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.08 · 9 matches

Zorya Luhansk away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.85 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.34 + Zorya Luhansk defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Zorya Luhansk attack 1.39 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more

46%

level

25%

Zorya Luhansk scores more

29%

Kolos Kovalivka at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

Nikolay Zolotov

31'

V. Brazhko↳ S. Buletsa

38'

45'

50'

55'

55'

58'

R. Vantukh← D. Antyukh

62'

S. Bolbat← A. Bogdanov

62'

K. Popov← V. Lysenko

68'

D. Myshnov← E. Guerrero

68'

K. Dryshlyuk← V. Brazhko

78'

Y. Isaenko← P. Orikhovskyi

80'

O. Khakhlyov← N. Rusyn

80'

P. Polehenko← S. Buletsa

Possession

Shots

Statistics

KolosZorya

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots11

3Corners6

9Fouls16

Shots

8Total Shots11

1On Target7

4Off Target2

3Blocked2

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1