Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kolos Kovalivka vs Chornomorets — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Kolos Kovalivka
Kolos Kovalivka
Preview
11:00
Chornomorets
Chornomorets
7/25/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies
Big match
70%
Kolos Kovalivka
model favours
70%20%10%

Kolos Kovalivka score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
53%
under 2.5 goals
39%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kolos Kovalivka70%
×Draw20%
Chornomorets10%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolos Kovalivka
1.97
Chornomorets
0.60

Kolos Kovalivka creates 228% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

creates per match

Kolos Kovalivka
1.94
Chornomorets
0.33

allows per match

Kolos Kovalivka
0.88
Chornomorets
2.00

finishing

Kolos Kovalivka+0.00on par
Chornomorets+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolos Kovalivka ↓

Chornomorets →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kolos Kovalivka or draw
90%
Kolos Kovalivka or Chornomorets
80%
Draw or Chornomorets
30%

Winning margin

Kolos Kovalivka wins by 2+
44%
Chornomorets wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Kolos Kovalivka 1+ goals
86%
Kolos Kovalivka 2+ goals
58%
Kolos Kovalivka 3+ goals
31%
Chornomorets 1+ goals
45%
Chornomorets 2+ goals
12%
Chornomorets 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Kolos Kovalivka (draw refunded)
87%
Chornomorets (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolos Kovalivka at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Chornomorets away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.94 + Chornomorets defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.97

Chornomorets attack 0.33 + Kolos Kovalivka defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Kolos Kovalivka scores more
70%
level
20%
Chornomorets scores more
10%

Kolos Kovalivka at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Kolos Kovalivka will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Chornomorets score first in only 20% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Kovalivka
WWWWW
Chornomorets
WWLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kolos Kovalivka host Chornomorets

July 25, 2026: Kolos Kovalivka take on Chornomorets in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.