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Kolomna vs Sakhalin — Cup 2019

Kolomna
Kolomna
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sakhalin
Sakhalin
8/19/2020CupCup · 2nd RoundStadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kolomna43%
×Draw25%
Sakhalin33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolomna
1.57
Sakhalin
1.35

Kolomna creates 16% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Kolomna
1.40
Sakhalin
0.50

allows per match

Kolomna
2.20
Sakhalin
1.75

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par
Sakhalin+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Sakhalin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw
67%
Kolomna or Sakhalin
75%
Draw or Sakhalin
57%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+
21%
Sakhalin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals
79%
Kolomna 2+ goals
46%
Kolomna 3+ goals
21%
Sakhalin 1+ goals
74%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
39%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)
56%
Sakhalin (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Sakhalin away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.40 + Sakhalin defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Sakhalin attack 0.50 + Kolomna defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kolomna scores more
43%
level
25%
Sakhalin scores more
33%

Kolomna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kolomna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolomna vs Sakhalin

Kolomna beat Sakhalin 2-0 in Cup on August 19, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.