Kolomna 1–3 Arsenal Tula II: Result & Stats

Kolomna

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Arsenal Tula II

6/5/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2nd Phase - 10Stadion Avangard

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kolomna38%

×Draw24%

Arsenal Tula II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KolomnaExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.58

Kolomna

1.56

Arsenal Tula II

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 77 away

1.44

creates per match

1.19

1.98

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Kolomna

1.44

Arsenal Tula II

1.19

allows per match

Kolomna

1.98

Arsenal Tula II

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolomna+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolomna ↓

Arsenal Tula II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kolomna or draw

61%

Kolomna or Arsenal Tula II

76%

Draw or Arsenal Tula II

62%

Winning margin

Kolomna wins by 2+

18%

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Kolomna 1+ goals

79%

Kolomna 2+ goals

46%

Kolomna 3+ goals

21%

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals

79%

Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals

47%

Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Kolomna (draw refunded)

49%

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolomna at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.98 · 54 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolomna attack 1.44 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.56

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Kolomna defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kolomna scores more

38%

level

24%

Arsenal Tula II scores more

39%

Arsenal Tula II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Arsenal Tula II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff