Köln U19 2–2 Viktoria Köln U19: Result & Stats

Köln U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Viktoria Köln U19

E. Borié 75'

A. Süne 32'

A. Amyn 77'

M. El Mala 12'

10/22/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 8Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Köln U1961%

×Draw20%

Viktoria Köln U1919%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Köln U19Expected goals in this matchViktoria Köln U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.18

Köln U19

2.24

Viktoria Köln U19

1.18

Köln U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 67 away

2.49

creates per match

1.46

0.90

allows per match

1.99

creates per match

Köln U19

2.49

Viktoria Köln U19

1.46

allows per match

Köln U19

0.90

Viktoria Köln U19

1.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par

Viktoria Köln U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Viktoria Köln U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw

81%

Köln U19 or Viktoria Köln U19

80%

Draw or Viktoria Köln U19

39%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+

38%

Viktoria Köln U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals

89%

Köln U19 2+ goals

65%

Köln U19 3+ goals

38%

Viktoria Köln U19 1+ goals

69%

Viktoria Köln U19 2+ goals

33%

Viktoria Köln U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Viktoria Köln U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.90 · 71 matches

Viktoria Köln U19 away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.99 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.49 + Viktoria Köln U19 defence 1.99 → ÷2 → 2.24

Viktoria Köln U19 attack 1.46 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Köln U19 scores more

61%

level

20%

Viktoria Köln U19 scores more

19%

Köln U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

M. El Mala

32'

A. Süne

59'

K. Taskale← S. El Mala

63'

N. Zimmermann← J. Krautkrämer

65'

A. Amyn← D. Tshimanga

65'

R. Preßler← A. MBoyo

75'

E. Borié

77'

A. Amyn

78'

L. Cortijo-Lange← A. Süne

84'

S. Carella← F. Harchaoui

86'

F. Türkmen← S. Ngambia Dzonga

Köln

Viktoria

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Ruthenbeck

63'▲N. Zimmermann←▼J. Krautkrämer

78'▲L. Cortijo-Lange←▼A. Süne

84'▲S. Carella←▼F. Harchaoui

Köln U19 substitutes

ZimmermannCortijo-LangeCarellaKrügerHauerBeckerSpitali

Manager: M. Wilhelm

59'▲K. Taskale←▼S. El Mala

65'▲A. Amyn←▼D. Tshimanga

65'▲R. Preßler←▼A. MBoyo

86'▲F. Türkmen←▼S. Ngambia Dzonga

Viktoria Köln U19 substitutes

TaskaleAmynPreßlerTürkmenBülbülLabonteKuzub

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 2–2 Viktoria Köln U19

Köln U19 and Viktoria Köln U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on October 22, 2023.

Goals: M. El Mala (12'), A. Süne (32'), E. Borié (75'), A. Amyn (77').

The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.

Köln U19 vs Viktoria Köln U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Köln U19 2–2 Viktoria Köln U19