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Köln U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Köln U19
Köln U19
CANC
10:00
Bochum U19
Bochum U19
1/31/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 10Franz-Kremer-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Köln U1948%
×Draw22%
Bochum U1930%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Köln U19
1.97
Bochum U19
1.54

Köln U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 64 away

creates per match

Köln U19
2.49
Bochum U19
2.19

allows per match

Köln U19
0.90
Bochum U19
1.45

finishing

Köln U19+0.00on par
Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köln U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Köln U19 or draw
70%
Köln U19 or Bochum U19
78%
Draw or Bochum U19
52%

Winning margin

Köln U19 wins by 2+
27%
Bochum U19 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Köln U19 1+ goals
86%
Köln U19 2+ goals
58%
Köln U19 3+ goals
31%
Bochum U19 1+ goals
79%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
45%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Köln U19 (draw refunded)
61%
Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köln U19 at home — creates 2.49, concedes 0.90 · 71 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.45 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köln U19 attack 2.49 + Bochum U19 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.97

Bochum U19 attack 2.19 + Köln U19 defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Köln U19 scores more
48%
level
22%
Bochum U19 scores more
30%

Köln U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Köln U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Köln U19 face Bochum U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with Köln U19 hosting Bochum U19. Match starts January 31, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Köln U19 host Bochum U19 at Franz-Kremer-Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.