Köln II vs Schalke 04 II — League #87 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
Köln II51%
Schalke 04 II28%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Köln II creates 39% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 28 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over71
- Under29
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes69
- No31
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Köln II ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Köln II at home — creates 2.27, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches
Schalke 04 II away — creates 1.43, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Köln II attack 2.27 + Schalke 04 II defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.13
Schalke 04 II attack 1.43 + Köln II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.53
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Köln II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Köln II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Fortuna Köln
Paderborn IISchalke 04 II
Bochum II
Sportfreunde Siegen
Bonner SC
Wiedenbrück
SV Rodinghausen
FC GuterslohKöln II
Sportfreunde Lotte
Rot-weiss Oberhausen
Borussia M'gladbach II
Wuppertaler SV
Fortuna Düsseldorf II
FC Bocholt
SSVg Velbert
Borussia Dortmund IIIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Köln II host Schalke 04 II on Saturday, 16 September 2023 at 12:00. The match is part of the League #87 2026/2027 season.
League #87: Köln II 2–1 Schalke 04 II
Köln II beat Schalke 04 II 2-1 in League #87 on September 16, 2023.
Goals: J. Diehl (24'), P. Pöpperl (64'), Joâo Pinto (89').
The match was played at Franz-Kremer-Stadion in Köln.