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KoldingQ W vs ASA Aarhus W — Kvindeliga 2019

KoldingQ W
KoldingQ W
Preview
12:00
ASA Aarhus W
ASA Aarhus W
9/13/2026KvindeligaKvindeliga · Round 7
56%
ASA Aarhus W
model favours
21%23%56%

KoldingQ W and ASA Aarhus W have never met before

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

KoldingQ W21%
×Draw23%
ASA Aarhus W56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KoldingQ W
0.99
ASA Aarhus W
1.79

ASA Aarhus W creates 81% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 5 away

creates per match

KoldingQ W
1.37
ASA Aarhus W
2.00

allows per match

KoldingQ W
1.58
ASA Aarhus W
0.60

finishing

KoldingQ W+0.00on par
ASA Aarhus W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KoldingQ W ↓

ASA Aarhus W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

KoldingQ W or draw
44%
KoldingQ W or ASA Aarhus W
77%
Draw or ASA Aarhus W
79%

Winning margin

KoldingQ W wins by 2+
7%
ASA Aarhus W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

KoldingQ W 1+ goals
63%
KoldingQ W 2+ goals
26%
KoldingQ W 3+ goals
8%
ASA Aarhus W 1+ goals
83%
ASA Aarhus W 2+ goals
53%
ASA Aarhus W 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

KoldingQ W (draw refunded)
27%
ASA Aarhus W (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KoldingQ W at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.58 · 78 matches

ASA Aarhus W away — creates 2.00, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KoldingQ W attack 1.37 + ASA Aarhus W defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.99

ASA Aarhus W attack 2.00 + KoldingQ W defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

KoldingQ W scores more
21%
level
23%
ASA Aarhus W scores more
56%

ASA Aarhus W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "ASA Aarhus W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLLLW
W
WWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KoldingQ W face ASA Aarhus W (Kvindeliga)

Kvindeliga returns with KoldingQ W hosting ASA Aarhus W. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.