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Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF — 1. Division 2018

Kolding IF
Kolding IF
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Vendsyssel FF
Vendsyssel FF
11/12/20231. Division1. Division · Round 16Autocentralen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Kolding IF45%
×Draw25%
Vendsyssel FF30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolding IF
1.55
Vendsyssel FF
1.22

Kolding IF creates 27% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kolding IF
1.40
Vendsyssel FF
1.15

allows per match

Kolding IF
1.29
Vendsyssel FF
1.70

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par
Vendsyssel FF+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

Vendsyssel FF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw
70%
Kolding IF or Vendsyssel FF
75%
Draw or Vendsyssel FF
55%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+
23%
Vendsyssel FF wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals
79%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
46%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
20%
Vendsyssel FF 1+ goals
70%
Vendsyssel FF 2+ goals
34%
Vendsyssel FF 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)
60%
Vendsyssel FF (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 80 matches

Vendsyssel FF away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.70 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 1.40 + Vendsyssel FF defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Vendsyssel FF attack 1.15 + Kolding IF defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kolding IF scores more
45%
level
25%
Vendsyssel FF scores more
30%

Kolding IF at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kolding IF vs Vendsyssel FF

Vendsyssel FF beat Kolding IF 1-0 in 1. Division on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Autocentralen Park in Kolding.