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Kolding IF vs B 93 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Kolding IF
Kolding IF
FT
1 – 2
B 93
B 93
O. Moller 24'
J. Erenbjerg 60'
S. Soerensen 44'
10/29/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 14Autocentralen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kolding IF39%
×Draw26%
B 9335%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolding IF
1.38
B 93
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

creates per match

Kolding IF
1.48
B 93
1.71

allows per match

Kolding IF
0.85
B 93
1.27

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw
65%
Kolding IF or B 93
74%
Draw or B 93
61%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+
18%
B 93 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals
75%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
40%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
16%
B 93 1+ goals
72%
B 93 2+ goals
37%
B 93 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)
53%
B 93 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 1.48 + B 93 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.38

B 93 attack 1.71 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kolding IF scores more
39%
level
26%
B 93 scores more
35%

Kolding IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
O. Moller
44'
S. Soerensen
60'
J. Erenbjerg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kolding IF 1 – 2 B 93

B 93 beat Kolding IF 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 29, 2021.

Goals: O. Moller (24'), S. Soerensen (44'), J. Erenbjerg (60').

The match was played at Autocentralen Park in Kolding.