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Kolbotn W vs Viking FK W — 1. Division Women 2022

Kolbotn W
Kolbotn W
Preview
13:00
Viking FK W
Viking FK W
8/9/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 13
44%
Kolbotn W
model favours
44%25%31%

Kolbotn W win just 38% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
58%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Kolbotn W44%
×Draw25%
Viking FK W31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolbotn W
1.58
Viking FK W
1.30

Kolbotn W creates 22% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 28 away

creates per match

Kolbotn W
1.83
Viking FK W
1.71

allows per match

Kolbotn W
0.89
Viking FK W
1.32

finishing

Kolbotn W+0.00on par
Viking FK W+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolbotn W ↓

Viking FK W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kolbotn W or draw
69%
Kolbotn W or Viking FK W
75%
Draw or Viking FK W
56%

Winning margin

Kolbotn W wins by 2+
22%
Viking FK W wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Kolbotn W 1+ goals
79%
Kolbotn W 2+ goals
47%
Kolbotn W 3+ goals
21%
Viking FK W 1+ goals
73%
Viking FK W 2+ goals
37%
Viking FK W 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kolbotn W (draw refunded)
58%
Viking FK W (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolbotn W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Viking FK W away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.32 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolbotn W attack 1.83 + Viking FK W defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.58

Viking FK W attack 1.71 + Kolbotn W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kolbotn W scores more
44%
level
25%
Viking FK W scores more
31%

Kolbotn W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kolbotn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLWDD
W
WDWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kolbotn W vs Viking FK W — Match Preview

Kolbotn W face Viking FK W on August 9, 2026 in this 1. Division Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.