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Kolbotn W vs Start W — 1. Division Women 2022

Kolbotn W
Kolbotn W
Preview
13:00
Start W
Start W
8/30/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 16
50%
Kolbotn W
model favours
50%25%26%

Kolbotn W win just 38% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kolbotn W50%
×Draw25%
Start W26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolbotn W
1.64
Start W
1.10

Kolbotn W creates 49% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kolbotn W
1.83
Start W
1.31

allows per match

Kolbotn W
0.89
Start W
1.44

finishing

Kolbotn W+0.00on par
Start W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolbotn W ↓

Start W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kolbotn W or draw
74%
Kolbotn W or Start W
75%
Draw or Start W
50%

Winning margin

Kolbotn W wins by 2+
26%
Start W wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kolbotn W 1+ goals
81%
Kolbotn W 2+ goals
49%
Kolbotn W 3+ goals
23%
Start W 1+ goals
67%
Start W 2+ goals
30%
Start W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kolbotn W (draw refunded)
66%
Start W (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolbotn W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Start W away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolbotn W attack 1.83 + Start W defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.64

Start W attack 1.31 + Kolbotn W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kolbotn W scores more
50%
level
25%
Start W scores more
26%

Kolbotn W at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kolbotn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
W
LLWDD
W
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Kolbotn W host Start W

August 30, 2026: Kolbotn W take on Start W in 1. Division Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.