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Kolbotn W vs Arna-Bjørnar W — 1. Division Women 2022

Kolbotn W
Kolbotn W
Preview
12:00
Arna-Bjørnar W
Arna-Bjørnar W
10/25/20261. Division Women1. Division Women · Round 22
Big match
42%
Kolbotn W
model favours
42%24%34%

Kolbotn W have won 6 of the last 8 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
61%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kolbotn W42%
×Draw24%
Arna-Bjørnar W34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kolbotn W
1.62
Arna-Bjørnar W
1.45

Kolbotn W creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kolbotn W
1.83
Arna-Bjørnar W
2.00

allows per match

Kolbotn W
0.89
Arna-Bjørnar W
1.41

finishing

Kolbotn W+0.00on par
Arna-Bjørnar W+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolbotn W ↓

Arna-Bjørnar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Kolbotn W or draw
66%
Kolbotn W or Arna-Bjørnar W
76%
Draw or Arna-Bjørnar W
58%

Winning margin

Kolbotn W wins by 2+
21%
Arna-Bjørnar W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kolbotn W 1+ goals
80%
Kolbotn W 2+ goals
48%
Kolbotn W 3+ goals
22%
Arna-Bjørnar W 1+ goals
77%
Arna-Bjørnar W 2+ goals
42%
Arna-Bjørnar W 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Kolbotn W (draw refunded)
55%
Arna-Bjørnar W (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolbotn W at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Arna-Bjørnar W away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolbotn W attack 1.83 + Arna-Bjørnar W defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.62

Arna-Bjørnar W attack 2.00 + Kolbotn W defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kolbotn W scores more
42%
level
24%
Arna-Bjørnar W scores more
34%

Kolbotn W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kolbotn W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Kolbotn W win just 38% against the top half (vs 69% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LLWDD
W
LWWLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kolbotn W vs Arna-Bjørnar W — Match Preview

Kolbotn W face Arna-Bjørnar W on October 25, 2026 in this 1. Division Women fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.