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KMC vs Geita Gold — Ligi kuu Bara 2019

KMC
KMC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Geita Gold
Geita Gold
12/5/2021Ligi kuu BaraLigi kuu Bara · Round 8Uhuru Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

KMC45%
×Draw28%
Geita Gold27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KMC
1.32
Geita Gold
0.97

KMC creates 36% more chances

Season form · 112 home / 45 away

creates per match

KMC
1.24
Geita Gold
0.82

allows per match

KMC
1.11
Geita Gold
1.40

finishing

KMC+0.00on par
Geita Gold+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KMC ↓

Geita Gold →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

KMC or draw
73%
KMC or Geita Gold
72%
Draw or Geita Gold
55%

Winning margin

KMC wins by 2+
21%
Geita Gold wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

KMC 1+ goals
73%
KMC 2+ goals
38%
KMC 3+ goals
15%
Geita Gold 1+ goals
62%
Geita Gold 2+ goals
25%
Geita Gold 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

KMC (draw refunded)
62%
Geita Gold (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KMC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.11 · 112 matches

Geita Gold away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.40 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KMC attack 1.24 + Geita Gold defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Geita Gold attack 0.82 + KMC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

KMC scores more
45%
level
28%
Geita Gold scores more
27%

KMC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "KMC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

KMC 2 – 0 Geita Gold

KMC beat Geita Gold 2-0 in Ligi kuu Bara on December 5, 2021.

The match was played at Uhuru Stadium in Dar-es-Salaam.